[FOM] Uncertainty

[Steve Stevenson]

Good Morning,

Much of my work focuses on correctness in models and simulations. That 
work seems to be focusing on issues of "uncertainty" and "risk". Some 
approaches, such as quantified risk assessment, have garnered much 
attention due to Yucca Mountain (the nuclear waste repository), but 
unfortunately more heat than light. The literature seems to be all over 
the lot, much of it from business practice. The problem is at its most 
interesting in the non-scientific world of policy: environmental and 
climate change literature seems to prescribe rules without much 
justification. The problems seem to be a mix of science methodology 
(statistics), various forms of probability, and psychology 
(decision-making, judgment, etc); maybe even a little sociology (group 
decision-making).

I'm looking for sources that focus on what fundamental issues are. This 
seems to me to be an epistemology issue but I don't want to jump to 
conclusions or get into the Frequentist-Bayesian debate or the 
Bayesian-Fuzzy debate. The business literature all seems to start off 
with frequentist probability rather than what the issues are. I'm 
really not familiar enough with the psychology literature to know where 
to start.

Any help gratefully accepted.

Best regards,

steve
--------
Dr. D. E. Stevenson,
Director, Institute for Modeling and Simulation Applications
P.O. Box 340974, Clemson University
Clemson, SC 29634-0974
http://www.imsa.clemson.edu